Woodburn School Districts Demographic Study
Fall 2022/23 - Fall 2031/32 Demographic Study
On August 9th Davis Demographics (DD) presented on Woodburn School Districts (WSD) projected demographics to determine if we would see an overall increase or decrease in our enrollment for the next 10 years. It’s a question on many people’s minds as we see more and more residential development in our community. If you missed it, please continue reading to see what Davis Demographics' predictions are.
DD geocoded 4 years of student data, researched the area development projects/plans, and created student generation rates that they applied to the new projects in the district. They analyzed relevant demographic data such as birth trends and the mobility of students within our district. From there, this developed into our 10-year student forecast.
A key factor of their study was WSD’s current and historical student data from 2018-2021. DD used the past four years of student data to map students' locations. DD also applied birth factors to their study which are the birth rates from the zip codes that make up our district. Those were applied to kindergarten classes only.
DD organized Woodburn into 110 neighborhoods/study areas. The study areas were broken down into 25-75 students per area. To determine the areas, they used existing street networks, geographic features, water, open space, parcel lot lines, and student density to determine the 10-year forecast for each area.
Forecasts were based on student residence rather than enrollment. It was done this way to predict where future students will be living. They also used resident-based data to determine the location of new facilities or to see if they need to consolidate surplus facilities in the future. They could also determine future boundary adjustments this way if needed.
To illustrate the uncertainties that they worked with they talked about variables they dealt with such as birth rates, mobility, and student yield factors.
Birth factors are used to determine future kindergarten class sizes. Birth factors also indicate how many children may start kindergarten five years after birth. All future kindergarten classes are calculated from the base year. The base year is 2016 when the current kindergarteners were born.
Birth Factor Findings
Version one: Status Quo, this is what is naturally happening and no changes were made to birth rates.
Overall they found that areas of birth are declining. This correlates with nationwide studies. Low birth rates correlate to smaller kindergarten classes. In 2006 there were 672 births. That was the highest birth rate within the district zip codes and ever since it has been declining. In the year 2020 which is the latest data found for birth rates, we had 425 combined births district-wide.
Version two: A one-time-only adjustment in birth rates was used in the projections for Fall 2021-22. A 10% increase in the birth rates for all 10 years of the forecasts was used to compensate for the additional enrollment of the kindergarten class students for the 2022-23 school year.
How do the kindergarten class and birth rates correlate?
Despite having lower birth rates, in the Fall of 2021, the District captured 66% of the kindergarten class born in 2016. Prior to the pandemic, in 2019 the District was capturing 84% of the kindergarten class born in 2014. A positive sign, kids born within the district are staying until they can attend our district school in kindergarten.
Mobility factors are transfers in and out of the district. Mobility refers to the increase or decrease of migration of students into or out of the district. Its movement from and to existing housing within mature neighborhoods. It captures the movement of students with and outside of the district. It does not take into account the new developments. Mobility captures apartment occupancy fluctuations, resales, foreclosures, movement outside of the district, and high school dropout rates. Mobility is applied as a percentage increase/decrease for each grade. DD mapped the last 4 years of student data (2018 to 2021) to establish mobility factors. They then took the student yield factors and applied them to the planned residential development in our district.
Student yield was the third factor considered. Student yield factors are only applied when there is a new residential development with more than 10 units. Student yield factors determine how many additional students will be generated from the new construction within the District. They took the student yield factors and applied them to the planned residential development in the district.
They focused on units built from 2011- 2021, and houses built within the last 10 years due to a low sample size of units built within the last 5 years. They focused on two main housing types, single-family detached homes, and apartments. In the report, they broke it down by elementary attendance areas to see what each area is generating. They used student yield to determine how many students are coming out from these units that were produced in the last 10 years.
Next, they applied the student yields to residential development. They contacted the city county and all developers within the district to determine current and future residential development. It is estimated that 1,925 total units are planned within the next 10 years. It is estimated to generate 950 K-12 students across the board for the next 10 years.
Finally, they presented two scenarios of the 2021-22 10-year forecasts. They each have their differences: one shows decline while one is the best-case growth scenario.
10-Year District-Wide Forecast Summary
Version One Summary: status quo- no modifications to factors such as birth rates, yields, mobility, etc. Results show an overall district-wide decline of -1,083 (-21%) K-12 students over the next 10 years. With the largest decline observed at the middle school level, -402 (-32%) 6-8 students over the next 10 years. A decrease in student population is due to a decline in Kindergarten enrollment, declining area births, and low mobility rates which may be related to the pandemic but it is unclear if this is a new normal or a temporary trend.
Version Two Summary:
Modified factors. DD added an increase in resident student population due to the 10% increase of birth rates in hopes that kindergarten students return to the pre-COVID mobility factor to account for the unusual trend the covid created and the amount of residential development occurring within the district. These modifications show an estimated growth of (+4%) K- 12 students over the next 10 years. The largest increase was observed at the elementary school level, with +240 (+11%) K-5 students over the next 10 years.